Winning the Battleground of America

Donald Trump was elected the 45th President of the United States of America, earning 306 electoral college votes to Hillary Clinton’s 232. Notable as “far from your typical election”, the 2016 race to the White House was won in four battleground states, with a total of 75 electoral votes at stake, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Florida. The margin of victory ranged from 11,612 votes or 0.5% in Michigan to 119,770 votes or 2.6% in Florida.

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While Hillary Clinton won the national popular vote with 65,844,954 votes, a margin of victory of 2,865,075 votes or 4.5%, Article Two of the United States Constitution established the United States Electoral College as the mechanism to select the President and Vice President of the United States of America.

Despite Hillary Clinton’s total raise of $1.2 billion to Donald Trump’s $647 million, 2016 Presidential Campaign Fundraisingbut short of Barack Obama’s 2012 all time record breaking raise of $2 billion Obama sets all time record fundraisingTrump’s message, in particular the pounding away of “Bill Clinton’s NAFTA” and the thunderous threats to “repeal Obamacare”, defied conventional wisdom and won over a far superior ground game by Hillary Clinton Trump Clinton field offices, to bring out unprecedented numbers of conservative suburban and rural voters in these four states. Obama Trump Counties

The family wallet and the tremendous pride of being the primary breadwinner are powerful motivating forces, particularly in states where shifts in manufacturing technology and energy consumption demand new skills and proactive solutions to employment. Free trade, evolving energy policy, and innovation in technology are hallmarks of a sound capitalist society. They do not “make America not great”. But they do require us to ask thoughtful questions and seek viable solutions to employment. Manufacturing skill gap

One point of clarification on the North American Free Trade Agreement. George Bush Sr. signed NAFTA in Law on December 17, 1992. President Elect and then Governor Clinton endorsed the agreement but said he wanted better protections for American workersABC News Video Pres Bush signs NAFTA.

While many in this country stood aghast as they watched a Presidential Candidate go on viral tweet storms at four in the morning, or brag about sexually assaulting women, or simply make remarks that, at the very least would be considered grossly unprofessional, this candidate knew exactly his message and target audience. Donald Trump may be insecure and erratic, but he is a very clever person, and I would argue, “a master of the message” in this era of the “sound bite” and the 24/7 entertainment news cycle. Hillary Clinton is a brilliant and strategic thinker with an extraordinary work ethic. She is always the consummate professional with veteran experience and judgment, but her message in these four battleground states was unfortunately less effective than her opponent.

Elections are about issues. As an energetic and committed finance professional, building my empire and living the dream in the greatest country in the world, I place a high premium on sound economic policies and a strong global presence. I am very focused on healthcare, income and wealth distribution, equality in compensation, energy policy, and the war against terror.

The Affordable Care Act (ACA), one of the most significant pieces of legislation in the history of this country, which we can trace to Hillary Clinton’s plan from the 2008 primary race, which President Obama fully adopted and signed into law in 2010, is the first serious attempt to reign in the U.S. healthcare spend, whose trajectory prior to enactment, was unsustainable and would have bankrupt the country by 2035. Please read this article by two veteran economists from both Democratic and Republican administrations, and stay informed. Blinder and Hubbard on National Debt.  If there is one single issue that keeps me awake at night, this is it. The subject matter is highly complex and confusing, but demands our attention and participation in the discussion. The single largest long term threat to the U.S. economy is our healthcare spend with the truly alarming budget realities to come in the next decade. If the Affordable Care Act or Trumpcare is not enough, we must be prepared to do more.

How could Trump change healthcare in America

Obamacare Pros and Cons

Cost of Obamacare

The core of the American economy is the middle class. They are getting poorer. It is widely recognized that increasing income & wealth inequality is a major problem and that addressing this issue is critical to promote strong and sustained growth. The Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) reports that rising inequality cost the U.S. economy almost 7% between 1990 and 2010. In 2013, income of the top 10% was 19 times higher than the bottom 10%. That ratio was 12.5 in the mid 1990’s and 11 in the mid 1980’s. “Countries that promote equal opportunity for all from an early age are those that will grow and prosper.” Living the Rock&Roll American Dream.  There are no easy answers to this problem, but investment in education and fostering an attitude of long term investment is key, as opposed to the ongoing “short-termism” that has become a serious concern in the business world, as it undermines the ability of companies to invest and grow. Are American Investors Killing Their Golden Geese?

In the U.S., women make 80 cents on the dollar compared to men on average. Of course this varies by state. The Simple Truth About the Gender Pay Gap While this clearly adversely affects household budgets during a person’s working years, the impact can be far greater in retirement. If you’re a woman, and you made less than $118,500 in 2016, your social security earnings in retirement will also be less than your male counterparts. As women live longer, and surviving spouses are not entitled to keep their spouse’s monthly benefit, unless they take a reduced benefit to begin with, this makes women more financially vulnerable at a time in their life when age and health have already created that risk. This is simply unacceptable. We can change this trend by promoting and electing more qualified women to leadership roles. Let’s stay on this!

The race for renewable energy has passed a turning point. The world is now adding more capacity for renewable power each year than coal, natural gas, and oil combined. And there’s no going back. Fossil Fuels Just Lost the Race Against Renewables While some discount the evidence, the cost of global warming is significant and preventable. Are the effects of global warming really bad? Ask the Long Island south shore homeowner or the small business owner in lower Manhattan what hit they took from Hurricane Sandy, the costliest storm in U.S. history at $65 billion. Global Disaster Report Sandy and Drought

The two most basic needs we have are health and safety. I have tremendous respect and gratitude for our law enforcement and military. We are a super power and must always defend our freedom and our people. Our world and our country changed on 9/11. The costs are great. The costs not to, are probably far greater. In 2016, the U.S. spent $73.7 billion fighting the war on terror. For the most part, I think out terrorism experts are getting the job done. I trust their judgment and I will never question this budget. But we must continue to attract and retain intelligence and analytical talent.  Further, no one doubts we need better protection on cyber warfare.  Cost War On Terror

People often ask me how I got started in politics. I immediately start glowing and recall that incredible February morning in 2004 when Hillary Clinton walked into the Russell Room at Park Avenue United Methodist Church. We had just finished choir practice and I was chatting with some friends. I thought, that can’t be Hillary Clinton. Then I noticed all the men with ear pieces. My life changed that day. I ran home afterwards and called everyone I knew. Then I ran into Sharon Patrick, my wonderful friend and mentor, a force to be reckoned with for sure. A brilliant, savvy, fiercely independent, and highly successful business person who has also changed my life. At the time, we were still getting to know each other in the elevator and lobby of our lovely little COOP on East 84th Street, and I had no idea she was a long time elite Democratic fundraiser and friend of Hillary Clinton. A meeting of kindred spirits, in a unique location, at a unique time in history. Since that time, I have done some incredible things I would never have dreamed about. In October 2007, I wrote my very first check for $1,000 and attended my very first women’s fundraising event for my hero and champion at a very nice hotel in Washington, DC. I don’t recall which one, I have been to so many since then. On January 1, 2008, I flew to Dubuque, Iowa to get out the vote for the first caucus. It was seventeen below with the wind chill and there was two feet of snow on the ground. Since then, I have traveled to New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Ohio many times. I have traveled by car, plane, and bus, and served as Bus Captain to Philadelphia with my fearless Co-Captain Nicole Ferraro. I have made thousands of phone calls, sometimes at home using some pretty cool new technology, and many nights at Hillary HQ in Brooklyn led by the very driven and terrific Stephanie Yoon and her staff. I have written checks, and succeeded in getting others to write some checks, with the wonderful support of a very diligent and disciplined finance team especially Anne, Carl, Marissa, Lisa, and Dennis. I have learned a great deal and feel very informed and clear on the priorities we face as a nation. I tweet and post on Facebook, and am very active as a member of the social media rapid response team. Yes I have met some influential people. I am struck by their integrity and humility. I have been to Hillary’s home in Washington, D.C. and have sat at a luncheon table with Michelle Obama’s Chief of Staff. I made the front page of the Politics section of the Washington Post in 2008 and the AP top news newsreel in 2015. I am incredibly honored that the team tasked with finding the most appropriate expression of sentiment, recognized my heart and passion. Most importantly, I have made so many incredible friends, people with whom I have a very special bond, who I admire greatly and who are powerful role models.   I have developed tremendous confidence and am living a life filled with joy, abundance, and purpose! I have no regrets and would do it all over again in a heartbeat!

On election night, the world was stunned. I was numb. In the weeks and days leading up to the election, I can’t tell you how many people told me, “Stop worrying, she’s got this.” I’ll be honest, while I was always worried and never felt I could let up, I did feel pretty good about our chances. I did everything I could possibly do. I was accountable to myself and to one of my most precious dreams and goals. I am damn proud of that! That following morning, as I lay completely uncontrolled, shaking and sobbing in my bed, I thought of Hillary, and the looming agenda for the remainder of the week, the major client deliverable, 30 pages of Copyright Law and yet another case brief, and two full weekend days of gymnastics judging. Yes Hillary Clinton changed my world! She taught me about hard work and integrity, the pursuit of goals and justice, how great America truly is, and about never giving up!

Thank you Hillary for being my hero and champion! The legacy of significant people in our history is often never fully revealed until the passage of time. I have tremendous faith in God and I’m certain there is a greater purpose here and you are the catalyst. Onward and upward ! The sky is the limit!

I’ll leave you with this masterpiece. Thank you to the incredible Kate McKinnon, Leonard Cohen, and the provocative team at Saturday Night Live. The Lord of Song!

SNL Election Week Cold Open McKinnon Halellujah

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Smoke On The Water

August was definitely the Rock&Roll month of 2016 with three live performances by three very different and talented bands! I’ve already shared two of those with you, both American born bands. Now you get to hear about my experience with a British Rock legend, recently inducted into the Rock&Roll Hall of Fame as a member of Deep Purple. I give you the very cool and talented Mr. Glenn Hughes!

On August 15, 2016, this very young and energetic 64 year old rocker, whose powerful and diverse vocal range, delivered a top a mighty bass guitar, delivered a smoking array of classics to a sold out crowd at BB King’s Blues Club in New York City’s Times Square! Ably supported by Danish guitarist Soren Andersen and Swedish drummer Pontus Engborg, the packed crowd of Rock&Roll fans might well as lifted the stage from it’s supporting beams, in praise of this technically brilliant performance!

As a VIP Meet & Greet ticket holder, I stood in awe as we were treated to the intimate viewing of the music sound check, and then some generous time chatting with our iconic Rocker, as we met on the photo line. Mr. Glenn Hughes was very generous with his time, gracious and professional. I really appreciated that! Spanning a nearly 50 year career, this was the first solo U.S. tour for this very humble and grateful British born musician who repeatedly thanked the packed audience for their obvious passion and enthusiasm. Our Rocker was then delighted to share with us his intent to finally become a U.S. Citizen, and promised future U.S. tours.

He opened the set with the 1972 classic “Way Back to the Bone” from his early days with the band Trapeze. He powered through his Rock Hall of Fame material from Deep Purple, and on to his days with Hughes/Thrall, Black Country Communion, and to his new solo career. Classic “Medusa”, which he wrote as a teenager sitting on a stool in his grandmother’s kitchen, delivered the first high point of the night. To cap an incredible evening, he brought down the house with the final encore performance of Deep Purple’s “Burn”! A powerhouse Rock&Roll evening for the memory books!

I’ll send you off with this brilliant 2013 performance by Glenn Hughes and the impressive veteran lineup of the Kings of Chaos, performing live in Cape Town, South Africa. Enjoy!  Smoke On The Water

Cynthia with Danish Guitarist Soren Andersen August 15, 2016 at BB Kings Blues Club

Cynthia with Danish Guitarist Soren Andersen August 15, 2016 at BB Kings Blues Club

Glenn Hughes August 15, 2016 at BB King's Blues Club

Glenn Hughes August 15, 2016 at BB King’s Blues Club

Glenn Hughes and Soren Andersen August 15, 2016 at BB Kings Blues Club

Glenn Hughes and Soren Andersen August 15, 2016 at BB Kings Blues Club

Some Classic Oldies!

“Jeremiah was a bullfrog. Was a good friend of mine.  I never understood a single word he said. But I helped him a-drink his wine..”

I loved that song growing up! It reminds me of childhood summers at my nana and papa’s home, hanging with some very cool cats on Cottage Street, in the lovely town of Weston, West Virginia. Alas, another fine stroll down memory lane made possible by my Vinofile membership at The New York City Winery, which offered me advance notice to this rare intimate performance of the legendary Three Dog Night! On the lovely summer evening of August 18, 2016, we were treated to the veteran music talent of this iconic and incredibly versatile band. Now in their 70’s and still going strong, they have more than survived some life changing realities with the sudden and unexpected passing of founding member Cory Wells in October 2015. Earlier in 2015, founding member Jimmy Greenspoon lost his battle with cancer. Despite all this, the Three Dog Night continues to connect with a still growing fan base, and putting out new material. You must check out their new hits “Prayer of the Children” and “Heart of Blues”, “WOW!”  A brilliant set list also included the many great hits that put these guys on the map, including the Jeremiah bullfrog classic “Joy To The World”, as well as timeless classics “Black and White”, “Mama Told Me Not To Come” “Shambala”, and “An Old Fashioned Love Song”! Did you know that back in the day, in the early 1970’s, no other group achieved more top 10 hits or sold more concert tickets than Three Dog Night? Their sales records are virtually unmatched in the history of popular music! They have produced 21 consecutive Top 40 hits, including 3 #1 Singles, 11 in the Top 10, 18 straight in the Top 20, 7 million-selling Singles, and 12 straight RIAA Certified Gold LPs! City Winery Presents Three Dog Night!

Founder and lead singer Danny Hutton’s charismatic presence and powerful vocals show no signs of aging. Michael Allsup, a veteran on the electric guitar, who has been with the band since the late 1960’s, was cool and masterful. Paul Kingar, who first started with the band in the 1980’s, delivered on bass and vocals. Paul Bautz, who hails from a family of drummers, and has been with the band since the 1990’s, kept the timing tight. Eddie Reasoner, who recently stepped in when founding member Jimmy Greenspoon passed, also CEO at NashAngeles Entertainment, and a certified commercial airline pilot, delivered on the keyboard. Another great and very talented new addition to the band is David Morgan on vocals, who stepped right  in to seamlessly replace the integral role of founding band member, vocalist Cory Wells Three Dog Night recruits David Morgan.

And I must tell you, they are all very cool. Yes of course I jumped at the opportunity for a meet and greet with these legends of song! So did a couple who traveled all the way from Toronto, Canada.  Passionate music fans travel! Their current tour continues through June 23, 2017 and I can’t wait for the next one! ThreeDogNight.com

Are you ready to strut your stuff for the fishes in the deep blue sea?  Bring it on baby! Joy To The World!

Three Dog Night Meet & Greet August 18, 2016 NYC Winery

Three Dog Night Meet & Greet August 18, 2016 NYC Winery

Founding member and lead singer Danny Hutton of the Three Dog Night at NYC Winery August 18, 2016

Founding member and lead singer Danny Hutton of the Three Dog Night at NYC Winery August 18, 2016

Three Dog Night's David Morgan on Vocals and Paul Kingar on Bass at NYC Winery August 18, 2016.

Three Dog Night’s David Morgan on Vocals and Paul Kingar on Bass at NYC Winery August 18, 2016.

Three Dog Night's Michael Allsup on the Electric Guitar and Danny Hutton on Vocals August 18, 2016 at NYC Winery.

Three Dog Night’s Michael Allsup on the Electric Guitar and Danny Hutton on Vocals August 18, 2016 at NYC Winery.

Three Dog Night's Michael Allsup on the Electric Guitar at NYC Winery August 18, 2016.

Three Dog Night’s Michael Allsup on the Electric Guitar at NYC Winery August 18, 2016.

 

Google and the Internet of Things

Continuing in my series on mobile and internet technology, this month I take a look at Google, the internet and technology juggernaut that generated $75 billion in gross revenue and $16.3 billion in net income in 2015. Net profit margin was 22% and the effective tax rate was 17%. The stock closed 2016 at $793.02 with a market capitalization of $554 billion. Google takes pride in not being a conventional company. Their innovations in search and advertising have made their brand one of the most recognized in the world. Their core products, including Search, YouTube, the Android mobile operating system, the Google Play app store, Maps, the Chrome internet browser, and Gmail each have over one billion monthly active users. Google believes they are just beginning to scratch the surface. In 2015 they created a new public holding company named Alphabet, a collection of businesses, the largest of which is Google, as well as new businesses Verily, Calico, X, Nest, GV, Google Capital, and Access/Google Fiber.

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Focusing on 2015 Google Websites revenue of $52.4 billion, at 70.2% of total segment revenue, up from 67.4% in 2013, the firm’s SEC filings describe this segment as advertising revenue on Search, Google Play, YouTube, Gmail, Finance, and Maps. While Google does not publicly report earnings by product line, Search, YouTube, the Android mobile operating system, including the Google Play app store, are the key product lines in this segment. For 2015, researching multiple sources of earnings estimates, including these two by eMarketer and ForbesI estimate the breakout to be:

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I should note that there is considerable debate about how much Android contributes to Google’s bottom line, with annual revenue estimates ranging from $300-$500 million to $1 billionto as much as $31 billion, as recently claimed by Oracle in their lawsuit against Google.  Oracle is suing Google for copyright infringement, for using its Java software to develop Android, without paying for it. Five years of litigation continues following a January 2016 U.S. Supreme Court ruling where Google lost in their effort to derail the case. Any settlement figure would be a function of this estimate, where it may be appropriate to include “Search” ad revenue. We’ll leave that decision to the copyright finance valuation team assigned to the case.

In the Search space, competition is fierce. Competitor Microsoft’s Bing market share continues to increase, at 22.3 percent in October 2016, compared to Yahoo at 11.7 percent, with Google still leading the pack at 63.6 percent. Considering that Bing was first introduced in May 2009, and that it also largely powers Yahoo Search, Microsoft is certainly gaining ground. Bing finally catching up to Google. U.S. Search Engine market share.

The biggest advantage Bing has over Google right now is their paid advertising platform. Bing is closing the gap by offering more niche advertising, and at lower prices. New functionality in the Ad Preview and Diagnostics tool is starting to turn Bing Ads into a major player in the paid search advertising world. It’s likely that more marketers will start using Bing Ads as an online advertising platform for budgetary reasons alone. If combined with more design, functionality, and visibility changes, Bing could start closing that gap between them and Google faster than ever before. Another increasing threat is in Europe where the European Commission has instituted new personal privacy provisions. Further, many European countries have launched legislative attacks on Google’s ambiguous privacy policy. This presents a significant opportunity for Bing to rise up and force Google out of Europe.

In the smartphone space, Google’s Android operating system is the hands down leader at 86.2% market share, compared to Apple’s iOS at 12.9%, according to the latest Gartner research.  Android, which was launched in 2008, makes money for Google in two ways, advertisements supplied by Google shown on Android phones, and revenue Google takes from its mobile app store, Google Play, which some technology analysts predict will soon overtake the Apple app store. Google Play to overtake Apple App store.

Also, in 2013, Starbucks dropped AT&T to partner with Google to provide an improved WIFI experience to their customers. Google will also work with Starbucks at developing the next iteration of the Starbucks Digital Network to provide increased content. Interestingly, I should note that following a recent flurry of iOS 9.3 updates, the functioning of my Apple iPhone 6 has declined dramatically when connected to Starbucks WiFi. Starbucks Google partnership.

The final point of analysis, and of course near and dear to my heart, is the subject of music video and Google’s YouTube, which was estimated to gross $5.6 billion in revenue, and net $1.6 billion or 28.6% margin to Google’s bottom line in 2013. Advertising Age on Google’s YouTube.  In the U.S. they were expected to net $1.08 billion, just 6.3% of all of Google’s net U.S. ad revenues for the year, but 20.5% of the $4.15 billion U.S. online video ad market.  Forbes contributor Tim Worstall on Google’s YouTube.  We can only rely on estimates as I noted earlier, in that Google does not publicly disclose financial results by product line. My 2015 gross revenue estimate for YouTube is $7.5 billion.

The P&L success of the YouTube advertising revenue model finds its roots in the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA) of 1998, the most important amendment to the U.S. Copyright Act of 1976; legislation enacted before user generated content sites like YouTube even existed, and clearly long before the significant transformation in digital technology we enjoy today. Google’s YouTube takes full advantage of the DMCA “Safe Harbor” provision that provides full protection from infringement liability for content flowing through their lines. To qualify, Google must meet certain guidelines, including promptly blocking access to newly discovered infringing material, and terminating repeat infringers. However, the responsibility for surveillance and enforcement lies with the Musical Artist, not with Google. Once a user uploads a video from a concert for example, probably without a license from the Artist, a global marketplace with at least five billion active users monthly, is instantly able to access this creative work for free. While Google’s YouTube is clearly not the only source of music piracy, the sheer global volume of the user base and ease of access to musical content, certainly makes it a major player. In the U.S., music piracy is a serious problem and results in the loss of $12.5 billion in total output annually, another $2.5 billion to downstream industries, the loss of 71,000 jobs, and $422 million less in U.S. tax revenue. The RIAA on the true cost of music piracy.

Further, Google’s YouTube is permitted to operate under an advertising revenue model, markedly different from a royalty based revenue model that has long been the standard in the recorded music industry. Musical Artists are in the fight of their lives! Multiple advocacy groups, including The Grammy Creators Alliance, The Future of Music Coalition, and the Berklee College of Music’s Rethink Music Initiative to name a few, are waging in earnest, a campaign for U.S. Copyright reform that reflects today’s music delivery system, that will protect Artists’ compensation, and that will ensure an enduring legacy of creative expression for years to come.

Looking abroad, in September 2016 the European Commission proposed modernizing copyright rules to help European culture flourish. The EU has adopted the Digital Single Market Strategy to offer better choice and access to content online and across borders, and to promote a fairer and sustainable marketplace for the creative industry. EU Press Release.

The winds are shifting and the message is becoming more clear. As the global recorded music industry is gaining legislative ground, particularly in the EU, and as consumer and music industry awareness and activism are on the rise, and as the Google YouTube development team has begun to respond with technology advances like Audible Magic and ContentID, expect to see transformative change in digital copyright law and protections, that will ultimately put some pressure on the YouTube profit model. Further, here is an interesting point if you’re really paying attention.  Today’s technology graduates are more interested in the altruistic goals that silicon valley offers, like working on products that will change the world, as opposed to Wall Street, where attractive compensation packages apparently don’t carry the same level of gravitas. Talent wars: Silicon Valley vs. Wall Street. Then perhaps it’s not a stretch to say that these young grads will not want to play a role in the continuing erosion of the Artist P&L and musical creativity in our society.

Let me leave you with this thought. What value does music create in your life? Think about that first piano recital where your daughter was so excited to play Beethoven’s “Moonlight Sonata”; or that hard fought comeback to competitive gymnastics performing the floor routine of your life to Bill Conti’s “Theme From Rocky”; or the incredible emotion flowing at the debut reunion performance, twenty three years in the making, of a legendary and iconic Rock & Roll band! What about the pure joy and hope you feel when your very special and brilliant 55 year old brother writes his first set of lyrics to the “Twelve Days of Christmas” and then sings them to his girlfriend! Yes! “…take me down to the Paradise City.. yeah yeahah!” For those of us who cannot possibly imagine a world without music to fill our souls, with pure unbridled emotion and purpose that inspires us every day, our message is simple. We’re on it and we’re in it for the Artist! Count on it.

 “Ten years ago they sent a machine from the future, “You Could Be Mine”